It is currently pressuring from above a bearish 20 SMA, which reflects a firmer selling interest. Finally, technical indicators also gyrated south but so far remain above their midlines. The slide may likely accelerate on a break below 1.0915, the immediate support level. AI Pickup’s forecast for 2023 saw the EUR/USD pair averaging around $1.17, before rising to $1.29 in 2024, $1.37 in 2025, and $1.42 in 2026. The platform’s euro forecast for 2030 suggested a EUR/USD rate of $1.16, expecting the pair to continue rising in the years following 2028.

The EU economies had a recession in the second half of 2023, even though regional inflation may have peaked. It’s possible that the European Central Bank (ECB) may lower interest rates first. If the rate cut is implemented alone, there is a chance that it will be done too soon, which would hurt the euro.

Together with the close price, this chart displays the minimum and maximum forecast prices collected among individual participants. The result is a price corridor, usually enveloping the weekly close price from above and below, and serves as a measure of volatility. Long-term forecasts are shaped by current prevailing economic conditions, https://forex-world.net/brokers/the-best-transportation-management-systems-for/ and these can be revised subject to new market-moving information. For the EU as a whole, including those countries not in the euro, the growth forecast was raised to 3.3% in 2022 (up from 2.7% in June) but revised down to 0.3% in 2023. In 2025, the EURUSD price rises above $1, according to the currencies forecasting.

Euro complicates things. Forecast as of 18.12.2023

According to a new EURUSD prediction by Morgan Stanley, the price will be 1.15 by the end of the year, which is a revision of the previous forecast of 1.08. According to Bloomberg’s euro exchange rates forecast, the euro/dollar will reach 1.15 in the third quarter and up to 1.18 in the fourth, according to the most optimistic forecasts for the rest of 2023. The EUR/USD rate is the ratio of the currencies of the two largest economies in the world – the EU and the USA. In the beginning, the EUR/USD currency pair was trading below parity. The euro-dollar all-time low is 0.82; the record high is close to 1.604. Bank of America’s 2024 Euro to Dollar forecasts confirm it is more bearish on the U.S.

If the ECB increases interest rates or there are better-than-expected economic data releases from the eurozone, this will increase euro strength. During a recovery from a recession, investors are not that focused on preserving money. At this stage, the fundamentals driving the EUR/USD currency pair are the GDP growth rates and the monetary policy of central banks. To make up a realistic euro to dollar forecast, conducting a deep technical analysis on different timeframes is necessary. The higher the market sentiment rises, the more optimistic the EURUSD outlook becomes. Repricing continued in the rates markets this week as central bankers did little to talk rates back up.

EUR to USD Long-Term Forecast

Bouts of volatility (or extreme flat volatility) can be then compared to the typical outcome expressed through the averages. In this chart, the close price is shifted behind so it corresponds to the date when the price for that week was forecasted. This enables the comparison between the average forecast price and the effective close price. The European Central Bank (ECB) provided some respite, and the euro has since rebounded. The Central Bank increased interest rates by 75 basis points on Oct. 27 for a second straight month, prompting the euro to strengthen. Following a protracted downtrend against the dollar since February, the beleaguered euro (EUR) has suffered an 8.80% decline compared to the dollar (USD) so far this year.

• Simultaneously, a large part of the pricing is also related to ‘event’ risks that cannot be gauged in advance.
• With CAPEX.com you can trade Eur/Usd with tight spreads using our award-winning trading platform and mobile apps.
• This prompted investors to exchange safety in dollar exposure for higher risk asset classes.
• EUR/USD rebounded from the 1.05 low, rising above the 200 SMA and breaking out above the rising channel to 1.10.

Expert forecasts by Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Moneycorp, and others provide different views on the EURUSD future rate. They take into account the current market situation and predict various price movement scenarios. The price should break out the upper channel border and go beyond in early August. The channel breakout will be confirmed if the MACD line breaks through the signal line from the bottom up.

12/20. EUR TO USD TODAY

As of Nov. 17, the Al Pickup website projects a bullish long-term euro-to-dollar forecast, projecting price targets of 1.25 for January 2025 and 1.29 for January 2030. Wallet Investor is less optimistic, projecting a closing rate of 0.993 in January 2025 and 0.965 in January 2027. The FOMC U.S. inflation forecast expects inflation to fall to 2.80% in 2023 and 2.30% in 2024. This is supported https://day-trading.info/how-to-buy-stocks-for-beginners/ by the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) predictions that inflation will fall to 3.50% in 2023 and 2.20% in 2024. While reduced inflation will put downward pressure on the dollar, future weakness will also depend on how inflation and the economic outlook in the U.S. compare to Europe. In contrast, the U.S. dollar has been greatly strengthened by its status as a counter-cyclical safe haven.

• The sudden slowdown in inflation exceeded current market expectations, precipitating a “risk on” environment in response to the reduced likelihood of further Fed rate increases.
• The worldwide economic growth is expected to keep slowing, which could also be a decisive key driver for the pair during the 2023.
• Should the price also fall below that, the focus will be on the low from 2020 as a price target.
• This graph is available for each time horizon (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter).
• By September, the euro plummeted below parity to 0.9685, levels unseen since June 2002.

Looking forward, the agency’s EUR/USD forecast for the next 12 months is 1.08. The bank continues to expect the US economy to slide into recession in 2024 and the Fed to cut its key interest rate by a total of 150 bps in response. However, as the market still seems confident that the US economy will manage a ‘soft landing’, they forecast the EUR/USD pair to rise to around 1.12.

EURUSD FORECAST 2023

The Forecast Poll is a sentiment tool that highlights near and medium-term price expectations from leading market experts. It is a sentiment indicator which delivers actionable price levels, not merely “mood” or “positioning” indications. Traders can check if there is unanimity among the surveyed experts – if there is excessive speculator sentiment driving a market – or if there are divergences among them. When sentiment is not at extremes, traders get actionable price targets to trade upon. When there is a deviation between actual market rate and value reflected in forecasted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market. After the ECB’s latest rate increase on Oct. 27, the bank stated further rises were expected.

The Euro/US dollar rate is subject to such factors as interest rate differences, inflation, jobs data, trade, and capital flows. Simultaneously, a large part of the pricing is also related to ‘event’ risks that cannot be gauged in advance. Let’s go more in-depth in this Euro to Dollar forecast and analysis of technical indicators. Speeches of central bank representatives are important https://bigbostrade.com/education-relative-strength-index-rsi-in-trading-html/ in forecasting the EUR/USD exchange rate. The officials’ comments give a clue on how the central banks’ policies could change, and investors could develop trading strategies based on this. The ongoing energy crisis, the post-pandemic economic recovery, and export declines brought on by global economic slowdowns are all impediments to the Eurozone’s weak economic growth.

Euro forecast: Will EUR continue rising?

The EUR/USD trend depends on what stage of the cycle the global economy is at. During a recession, the demand for safe-haven assets, including the US dollar, increases. The EUR/USD is expected to trade at 1.09 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts’ expectations.

Although Forex trading is full of risks, a thorough comparison of market characteristics and conducting analysis will help traders make profitable decisions. Analysts and large analytics firms use various tools such as moving averages, oscillators, and pivot points to analyze past data and determine future market trends. This helps investors make informed investment and trading decisions.